What the GDP Report Isn't Telling You

December 29, 2025

Dear Reader,

So the Trump administration got some really good news.

Third-quarter GDP came in at 4.3 percent. Even when you adjust for inflation, that's a strong number.

  • The growth illusion: Trump's 4.3% GDP looks impressive until you realize it's pumped up by tariff math (exports add, imports subtract)

  • The bubble nobody admits exists: Savings rates crashed from 10-12% in the 1950s to 4.7% today

  • Fiat money broke everything: We should be seeing double-digit growth like the Gilded Age with all our tech innovation, but instead we're limping along at 2-4% 

  • Hidden inside the Big Beautiful Bill are new carve-outs that could slash your tax bill, multiply your income, and protect your family's wealth. Donald Trump and I wrote the only book that shows you exactly how. Click here to claim your copy!

And while everyone's celebrating, I'm looking at this a bit differently.

Let me explain what I'm seeing.

The Math They're Not Explaining

When Trump started his tariff push, remember all the doom predictions?

Economists compare it to 1930's Smoot-Hawley Act. Talk of economic collapse everywhere.

Well, it didn't collapse. The economy's still here.

But here's what most people don't understand about how GDP gets calculated.

Exports add to the number. Imports subtract from it.

Trump's whole strategy is boosting exports and taxing imports.

So naturally, the GDP calculation is going to look better than it might otherwise.

It's not necessarily fake, but it's definitely favorable math.

There's real growth in there too, don't get me wrong. But how much is actual expansion versus clever accounting? 

That's the question that keeps me up at night.

Can We Even Trust The Data Anymore?

Here's my bigger concern.

We just came through years of absolute chaos in economic reporting.

GDP crashed during COVID, then suddenly soared. Jobs numbers were all over the place. Inflation data seemed... let's just say creative.

I talked to business owners who'd look at official government numbers and scratch their heads. "That's not what I'm seeing in my industry at all."

When you adjust official data to match what actual businesses were experiencing, you don't see growth. You see recession.

So when someone tells me GDP is up 4.3 percent, I have to ask: measured against what baseline? Using which assumptions?

It's like asking "How tall is that building?" when nobody agrees on where the ground starts.

Are We Growing Or Just Rebuilding?

Think about this for a second.

If a hurricane destroys your house and you spend a year rebuilding it, are you wealthier?

Of course not. You're actually poorer because you had to sink resources into fixing something that shouldn't have broken.

That's kind of where we are now.

We're rebuilding what lockdowns destroyed. Replacing what bad policy broke.

But we're calling it "growth" and celebrating like we're making progress.

That concerns me.

The Bubble Everyone Whispers About

You know what's interesting? Talk to people in finance privately.

Not what they say on TV. What they actually think when the cameras are off.

Almost everyone will tell you the same thing: this is the mother of all bubbles. We're just not sure when it pops.

Look at the numbers.

Personal savings rate is down to 4.7 percent. In the 1950s and 60s, it was 10-12 percent.

Corporate debt just hit fourteen trillion dollars.

Think about that. Fourteen trillion.

My dad's generation? Companies were expected to run debt-free and pay dividends from actual profits.

Now if you're not leveraged to the eyeballs, Wall Street penalizes you for "being too conservative."

The whole game has flipped.

The Ai Story That Feels Familiar

Let me ask you something about artificial intelligence.

Look closely at what's happening in that industry.

You've got a handful of highly leveraged companies essentially investing in each other. Stock prices are driven by hype and reputation more than actual fundamentals.

Does this remind anyone else of 1999?

I'm not saying AI isn't real or important. It obviously is.

But how much of the current valuation is based on actual value versus future promises?

Hard to separate the signal from the noise.

What We Should Have Had

This is what really frustrates me.

Look at the past thirty years of innovation.

The internet. Smartphones. Apps that changed everything. Cloud computing. AI. Databases that revolutionized business.

By any historical standard, these innovations should have driven massive growth. Double-digit numbers like we saw in the Gilded Age.

Instead, we're barely managing 2-4 percent, interrupted by regular recessions and crises.

Something's clearly broken.

Where The Problem Really Is

So what's holding everything back?

The government's too big. Regulations strangle innovation. Inflation eats purchasing power.

But these are symptoms, not causes.

The real problem? Fiat money.

When Nixon ended the gold standard fifty-plus years ago, he fundamentally broke our monetary system.

We've never recovered.

The Fed prints money. The government spends it. Debt piles up. Real value disappears.

And we just keep pretending it's sustainable.

What I'm Actually Doing

Look, this GDP report gives Trump some political wins. Good for him.

But it doesn't change my strategy.

I'm not trusting government statistics to guide my financial decisions.

I'm stacking real assets. Gold. Silver. Bitcoin. Real estate that generates monthly cash flow.

Things that hold value when the house of cards eventually falls.

Because this bubble will pop. Maybe next month, maybe next year. Nobody knows when.

But when it does, people holding paper assets and celebrating GDP reports are going to be in serious trouble.

The people holding real assets will be okay.

My Advice To You

Don't let good headlines lull you into complacency.

The fundamentals haven't changed. We're leveraged beyond belief. Savings are down. Debt is astronomical.

And inflation—the thing that actually hurts regular people—still isn't under control.

Position yourself accordingly.

Stack real assets. Control what you can control.

The GDP might look great today.

But tomorrow tells a different story.

Kiyosaki Unsensored

P.S. STOP! Don't You DARE Buy Gold Right Now.

I don't care if gold is at $4,500. I don't care if everyone says it's going to $5,000. If you buy gold now, you're making a costly mistake. There's a smarter play that could hand you 11X the profits. But the window closes on December 10th when a government meeting changes everything.