Politicians Are Blocking Trillions In Resource Wealth

Dear Reader,

Most recent reports about Greenland and Venezuela focus on the same tired things.

Large capital expenditure required. Technical challenges. Legal security risks.

But here's what they're missing. Markets are exaggerating the risks and completely underestimating the potential.

• Resources Aren't Scarce—Regulations Are Excessive: Greenland offers 180% IRR on rare earth projects and Venezuela can add 2 million barrels/day 

• The Numbers Prove Massive Returns Are Possible: Greenland's Malmbjerg project shows 34% IRR on $820M investment

• Deregulation Unlocks What Politics Blocks: Venezuela's production collapsed from 3.5M to under 1M barrels/day purely from regime plundering

• Trump’s Final Financial Gambit: The secret he put in motion while in office is about to be unleashed. You have until January 28th to get on the right side of it.

Want to know what's really interesting?

The China Double Standard

Analysts say the United States shouldn't invest in Venezuela and Greenland because they're high-risk, low-potential areas.

But these same analysts find absolutely no problem with China and Russia developing those exact same resources.

Think about that for a second.

What This Could Actually Do

The oil market will likely lose most of its geopolitical risk premium with Venezuela's transition to transparent democracy.

Add a possible regime change in Iran to that.

Then add the development of Greenland. It could have the same effect the shale revolution had.

Lower gas prices. Tech disinflation. Higher investment. More transparent price formation.

The potential is absolutely significant.

The Real Problem Isn't Resources

Here's the truth nobody wants to say out loud.

The world doesn't have resource scarcity.

It has legal and regulatory excess.

In fact, most of the limitations in Greenland and Venezuela are legal and regulatory. Not technical.

Even the technical aspects? Manageable challenges at best.

Deregulation and a transparent legal framework are the keys to unlocking enormous potential.

Greenland's Mining Opportunity Is Insane

Greenland is undeniably a high-return mining opportunity.

The Malmbjerg molybdenum project? Estimated 33.8% Internal Rate of Return with $1.17 billion Net Present Value on just $820 million capital expenditure, according to project feasibility studies.

All the feasibility studies are completed. Permitting is done. It's just a question of making the decision to act.

The Tanbreez rare earth project? Even better.

An exceptional 180% estimated IRR with around $3 billion NPV on just $290 million CapEx, based on project economics analysis.

You read that right. One hundred and eighty percent.

Similar economics exist in Greenland's graphite and gold resources. Manageable capital expenditure. Returns that comfortably exceed the cost of capital. Rapid payback periods.

Oil and Gas Gets More Complicated

In oil and gas, the Greenland opportunity finds more legal and regulatory resistance.

But the returns may be significantly higher.

Greenland holds very large but still unproven oil and gas resources. Technically attractive volumes but slightly more challenging economics due to government policy.

Notice the pattern? Government policy is always the problem.

The Resource Estimates Are Massive

A USGS Circum-Arctic assessment estimates mean undiscovered conventional resources in the East Greenland Rift Basins at about 31.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

The Greenland government mentions a separate West Greenland/Baffin Bay assessment with a mean resource of more than 18 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

Independent basin studies for onshore Jameson Land suggest around 4 billion barrels of unrisked recoverable oil, with about 1.2 billion barrels targeted by the first two planned wells.

These aren't small numbers.

The Economics Work at $60 Oil

Analysts highlight that discoveries would likely carry high break-even prices due to Arctic logistics and harsh operating conditions.

Different independent analyses show breakeven oil prices at $75 per barrel and IRRs of 13%.

But here's what they're missing. Those inflated cost estimates come mostly from small independent exploration companies. Not from efficient majors.

Many areas with similar technical challenges have proven economically viable at $60 per barrel with better cost structures and economies of scale.

Government Killed the Opportunity

The problem in Greenland isn't navigating technical challenges.

It's government interventionism.

In 2021, the government stopped issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses. Climate-related reasons, they said.

This limits the potential. No economies of scale. No major player involvement.

Greenland suffers a policy paradox. Legal licenses exist, but an overtly anti-oil stance has made investor confidence collapse.

The challenges from Arctic logistics? They come mostly from the impossibility of installing large-scale, cost-efficient systems.

Litigation. Regulatory animosity. Political opposition. Permitting delays.

Those are the main problems. Not geology. Not engineering.

Venezuela's Opportunity Is Even Bigger

The case in Venezuela is also very attractive. Only limited by legal and political insecurity.

Venezuela's oil production plummeted from 3.5 million barrels per day to less than a million, due to the dictatorship's plundering of PDVSA.

Why? The dictatorship plundered PDVSA, the national oil company. Abandoned productive investment. Weaponized it for political spending.

A quick recovery of 500,000 barrels per day is relatively easy. Would require around $10 billion of capital expenditure over two years, according to industry restoration estimates.

Adding one million barrels per day? Maximum of $70 billion of capital expenditure.

But restoring to 2018 levels only needs $20 billion, based on infrastructure assessment.

Once legal, regulatory, and safety hurdles are lifted, companies may find the cost is substantially lower.

The Infrastructure Already Exists

In Venezuela's main projects, infrastructure and wells already exist.

Adding incremental production from infill drilling, artificial lift and maintenance is relatively fast with low additional costs.

This could double IRRs rapidly.

Chevron's four Joint Ventures currently produce around 200,000 barrels per day. About 22-25% of total Venezuelan output, according to company data.

This figure could increase by 50% in less than a year and a half "just leveraging what's on the ground," according to Chevron.

High-return, short-cycle investments in maintenance and de-bottlenecking.

The Legacy Projects Are Ready

The Junín and Carabobo projects are legacy development plans with plateau capacities of 200-450,000 barrels per day per block.

A 2025 Energy Analytics Institute (EAI) sector analysis estimates that six large heavy-oil projects would have required about $47.4 billion investment and could have added around 2.1 million barrels per day of capacity.

That highlights the scale of deferred production that could be revived under safe, transparent and attractive new terms.

The Returns Are Exceptional

The Venezuela opportunity offers an average 20% IRR at current oil prices once the initial restoration phase is completed, according to investment analysis.

Decades of under-investment and political dysfunction can be solved rapidly with decisive actions and technical skill.

In five years, Venezuela can double current production levels.

A Breakwave Advisors special report shows that a recognized government and market reintegration can allow production to trend back toward historic peaks of around 3.5 million barrels per day.

Wood Mackenzie highlights that with regulatory clarity and access to capital, Venezuelan supply could become a significant medium-term growth source.

An Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) technical report says that with "proper investment," Venezuela could sustain roughly 2.5 million barrels per day over 20-30 years.

In Venezuela, less than $10 billion dedicated to productivity technologies could double recovery factors over five years, showing over 20% IRR project level economics, according to the EAI report.

It Can Happen Fast

Can it be done quickly?

An Atlantic Council study highlights that licensing and contract reforms could add 200-300,000 barrels per day in 12-18 months.

The only reason analysts see current challenges as insurmountable? Because it seems difficult to believe the legal framework will change to an investment-friendly system.

But that's exactly what needs to happen.

The Real Lesson Here

What Greenland and Venezuela show is simple.

Enormous resource and development opportunities may have technical challenges. But those are easily solvable.

Once the legal and regulatory framework changes from corrupt and unstable systems to ones focused on facilitating investment.

Once politics stop interfering, investment will thrive.

Trust Engineers, Not Politicians

If you want respect for the environment, economic development and sustainability?

Trust in engineers. Not politicians.

Engineers solve problems.

Politicians create them.

The resources are there. The technology exists. The returns are proven.

The only thing standing in the way? Government.

Get them out of the way and watch what happens.

Your move, world.

Kiyosaki Uncensored 

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