Dear Reader,
THE 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD hit 5.02% this week. That’s the highest since 2007. Nineteen years.
The bond market got there before the Fed did. The Fed voted 12-0 to hike rates Wednesday. First hike in three years. They called it a move toward “a timelier return” to their 2% inflation goal. Their own projections say that goal won’t be reached until 2029.
Let that sink in. They are hiking now. For a goal they don’t expect to hit for three more years.
Inside today’s issue:
- The Bond Market Told the Truth: Yields hit 5% before the Fed acted. The market knew. The Fed didn’t. Or they didn’t want to.
- Silver Up 120% and Nobody Is Talking About It: Gold sits at $4,310 an ounce. Silver has climbed over 120% this year alone. The mainstream is watching Intel surge 23% in a day.
- What History Says Happens Next: Every time the Fed chases inflation from behind, something breaks. I’ve watched this cycle play out my entire career. It’s playing out again.
- Larry Benedict — Oil Skimming: Larry Benedict just released a new presentation on a strategy called "Oil Skimming." It's worth a look. (Brownstone Research)
THE FLIP
Here is what CNBC said about Wednesday’s rate hike: “The Fed is taking action to protect the economy.”
Here is what I say: They lit the fuse. Now they’re pretending to put out the fire.
The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% before the Fed moved. That doesn’t happen when the Fed is ahead of inflation. That happens when the bond market is screaming: “We don’t believe you.”
"Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal."
They don’t expect to hit that goal until 2029. Three years from now. So they hike today, declare victory, and hope the math works out. This is how empires manage their debt. They hope.
THE EVIDENCE
Let me give you the numbers they buried:
- The 10-year Treasury yield: 5.02%. Highest since 2007.
- Gold this week: $4,310 per ounce. It didn’t sell off on the hike. It bounced. Physical buyers came in.
- Silver year-to-date: up over 120%. From $29 at the start of 2025 to $65 today. The mainstream missed every step of it.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities pushed oil to $100 a barrel. Goldman Sachs now warns of $120 if shipping disruptions continue.
- The Fed’s own projection for its inflation target: not until 2029.
I’ve been watching this cycle since 1971. Nixon closed the gold window. The dollar became a promise. Every decade since then, the promise gets a little harder to keep.
Here is the pattern. The Fed falls behind inflation. Oil spikes. The bond market moves first. The Fed hikes into a slowing economy. Something breaks — a bank, a currency, a market. They cut to rescue it. The cycle restarts. Deeper each time.
Rome didn’t fall in a day. Their emperors kept shaving silver from the coins and calling it monetary policy. We’re doing the same thing with digits on a screen.
BUT FIRST
The number that tells you exactly where this ends — and what you can still do about it. I’ll show you in a moment. But before that, something worth your time.
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WHAT YOU CONTROL
That number is this: the U.S. government now pays over $1 trillion a year in interest on its debt. Every quarter-point hike adds billions more. At 5% on the 10-year, the math becomes impossible to ignore.
The Fed cannot raise rates fast enough to kill inflation without bankrupting the Treasury. The Treasury cannot let yields stay this high without blowing up the budget. That is the trap. They built it themselves.
My poor dad trusted the system. He kept his savings in dollars. My rich dad kept his savings in assets. Real assets. Things the government cannot print more of.
Gold is at $4,310. Silver up 120% this year and the mainstream still calls it a commodity. I’ve been saying for years: silver is the most undervalued monetary metal on Earth. The bond market is proving it right now.
Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. I am not waiting for permission from the Fed to protect my wealth.
To your freedom,
Robert Kiyosaki
Author, Rich Dad Poor Dad
P.S. Larry Benedict says the oil market is creating unusual opportunities right now. Click here for his full analysis.