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- The New Fed Chair Already Lost Control.
The New Fed Chair Already Lost Control.
Inflation just hit a 3-year high. The FOMC is split. And gold just gave you a 22% discount.
The New Fed Chair Already Lost Control.
INFLATION AT 4.2 PERCENT. A three-year high. Kevin Warsh just held his first Federal Reserve meeting as chairman. The FOMC is split down the middle. Some officials want to CUT rates. Others want to RAISE them. Meanwhile, gold just fell 22% from its January all-time high. Wall Street is calling it a selloff. I call it a sale.
Inside today's issue:
- The Warsh trap: inflation at 4.2%, jobs missing badly, and a Fed chairman who can't raise rates or cut them.
- The gold discount: $5,602 in January. $4,112 today. JP Morgan says $6,000 by year-end. The cycle hasn't changed.
- What history says: every time the Fed got stuck like this, hard assets won. Every. Single. Time.
- Larry Benedict says the oil market is creating unusual opportunities right now.
Let me be direct. Kevin Warsh just held his first FOMC meeting as Fed chairman. The minutes came out Wednesday. They were a disaster.
Inflation hit 4.2 percent in May. That is the highest in three years. Energy prices are up 23.5 percent year over year. The June jobs report came in at 57,000. Forecasters expected 115,000. The economy is slowing and prices are rising at the same time. Stagflation. The word nobody at the Fed wants to say out loud.
Here is what the minutes showed. Some officials said there was already a case to RAISE rates. Others said rates should come DOWN. Warsh called it a "family fight." The market is now pricing in a 64 percent chance of a September rate hike. Right before midterms. Right when Trump needs the economy to cooperate.
This is a trap. A complete trap.
Raise rates with $39.28 trillion in national debt, and debt service costs explode. The Treasury is already paying over $1 trillion a year just in interest. That is more than the entire defense budget. Raise rates again and the math becomes unsurvivable.
Cut rates and inflation runs to 6. Then 8. My poor dad trusted the government to manage money. My rich dad bought gold.
I have seen this movie before. The 1970s. Arthur Burns at the Fed. Inflation at 14 percent. Nixon already closed the gold window. The dollar lost 40 percent of its value in a decade. Gold went from $35 to $850 per ounce. A 2,300 percent gain. Not because gold was magic. Because the dollar was broken.
Now look at today. Gold hit $5,602 in January. Then it corrected. Wall Street declared the bull market over. Gold "crashed" to $4,112. That is a 22 percent pullback after a 1,500 percent run from $350 in 2005. My rich dad had a word for pullbacks like this.
Opportunity.
But before I tell you exactly what I think happens next to gold, there is something else going on underneath this story. Something the mainstream press is not measuring. You need to see this first.
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Here is what the press is missing.
JP Morgan just raised their year-end gold forecast to $6,000 per ounce. The World Gold Council shows central banks are still buying. More than 600 tons per year above the long-term average. China. Russia. India. Turkey. These governments do not buy gold to lose money.
They are buying because they see what Warsh cannot admit in public. The dollar system is cracking.
The US national debt is $39.28 trillion. That is $115,000 for every living American. It exceeds the entire US GDP. When that debt number crossed GDP, every historical precedent said one thing: debasement follows. Always.
So here is where we are. Warsh can raise rates and blow up the Treasury. Or he can blink, and inflation runs hotter. Either way, the dollar loses. Either way, people who hold physical gold win.
I have been buying gold since it was $300 an ounce. I have been saying the same thing for 20 years. Gold is not an investment. Gold is money. Paper is just a promise. And right now, the people in charge of keeping that promise are fighting among themselves in a closed room in Washington.
The pullback is not a warning. It is a window.
To your freedom,
Robert Kiyosaki
Author, Rich Dad Poor Dad
P.S. The governments of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait once hired our friend Larry Benedict. So did the banks that hold money for Exxon, Chevron, and Shell. For decades, he helped the most powerful players in oil grow their money. Now he's revealing his top oil strategy, adapted so ordinary folks can use it too. Watch the free presentation here.
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Larry Benedict says the oil market is creating unusual opportunities right now.