Dear Reader,

Yesterday Kevin Warsh walked into his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.

He held rates at 3.50%. He refused to give his own dot projection. A break from Federal Reserve tradition that financial media is calling disciplined.

I call it a tell.

The mainstream reads this as responsible inflation fighting. I read it as a trapped institution with nowhere to go.

IN TODAY'S ISSUE

• The $36 trillion reason the Fed cannot actually raise rates

• Iran's $300 billion reconstruction fund: the oldest play in history

• The government printed $22 billion, handed it to fraudsters, and now wants it back

• Jim Rickards: Trump's next big government buy could make early investors very wealthy

THE TRAP

Let me be specific about what trapped actually means.

The United States has $36 trillion in national debt. At current rates, interest payments run over $1 trillion a year. That is not a projection. That is the number right now.

If Warsh hikes rates by even 100 basis points, the annual interest bill climbs another $360 billion. On top of the deficit already running. On top of every spending bill already passed.

That math does not work.

But here is the other side. PPI data dropped this week: unprocessed goods up 4.9% month over month. Processed goods up 3.5%. These are pipeline prices. They have not hit your grocery store yet. They are coming.

So the Fed cannot hike. It cannot cut. And Warsh knows it. His answer: refuse to give a dot projection at all. Call it "appropriate opacity." Call it "regime change." The Wall Street Journal ran this headline the same morning:

"The Economy Is Booming. Why Does It Feel Like a Bust?"

They answered their own question without knowing it. Consumers are spending more because everything costs more. That is not prosperity. That is inflation survival.

My poor dad believed in the system. He worked 40 years, saved in dollars, trusted the experts. He never grasped one thing: the experts protect the system because they run it. A new name at the Fed changes nothing.

THE $300 BILLION QUESTION

Trump announced a $300 billion investment fund as part of the US-Iran deal. More than half of it is already committed. Energy. Logistics. Manufacturing. Transport.

Every financial channel is covering who won the diplomacy. Nobody is asking who gets the contracts.

First the war. Then the reconstruction. Oldest play in the book. This is not cynicism. This is pattern recognition.

Three Iranian tankers carrying five million barrels passed through the Strait of Hormuz while talks were technically still ongoing. Somebody always knows before the announcement.

There is one asset class that benefits whether the Fed folds or fights, whether the war spreads or settles, whether Warsh hikes next quarter or holds forever. Before I tell you what I am watching in that market right now...

...here is the other story they buried under the Iran headlines.

$22,000,000,000

The White House Fraud Task Force referred $22 billion in fraudulent small business loans back to Treasury for collection this week. Twenty-two billion dollars.

These were COVID emergency loans. Relief money. The government printed it, handed it out, and discovered years later that billions went to fraudsters. Not one or two bad actors. Twenty-two billion dollars worth.

VP Vance chairs the task force. GSA joined in May. They are now chasing money created out of thin air to begin with.

This is what happens when institutions print money without restraint. They cannot track it. They cannot account for it. And when it disappears into fraud, they call the chase accountability.

THEY WERE WRONG ABOUT INFLATION BEING TRANSITORY.

THEY WERE WRONG ABOUT RATES STAYING LOW FOREVER.

THEY WERE WRONG ABOUT $22 BILLION IN COVID LOANS.

The pattern does not change. The names change.

Warsh is not Yellen. He is not Powell. But he runs the same institution with the same impossible mandate: protect a $36 trillion debt pile while pretending to fight inflation.

Gold does not hold press conferences. Silver does not give dot projections. Real assets do not require you to trust a government that loses $22 billion and announces the search two years later.

The only question is whether you are positioned before the next crisis hits. Or after.

Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Position yourself accordingly.

To your freedom, Robert Kiyosaki

P.S. The Fed's poker face is cover for a dollar that keeps losing ground. My team put together a full briefing on the Patriot Income Plan: the exact strategy I think protects your purchasing power while Washington argues over interest rate theater. Click here to see it now.