The Bond Market Just Called America's Bluff

THE BOND MARKET JUST CALLED AMERICA'S BLUFF

The Dow hit 50,000. I was watching somewhere else.

Dear Reader,

The Dow hit 50,000 this week. CNBC ran the ticker in gold. Champagne all around.

I was not celebrating.

I was watching the 30-year Treasury yield. It hit 5.19 percent this week. The highest level since 2007. That is 19 years of financial history delivering a single data point that tells you everything about where we actually are.

The stock market says everything is fine. The bond market disagrees. In my experience, the bond market always wins.

IN TODAY'S ISSUE:

• Why Jerome Powell's Harvard admission should worry you far more than any earnings report

• The CBO score on the "One Big Beautiful Bill": $3.4 trillion added to the deficit, interest payments doubling to $1.8 trillion by 2034

• The one move cycles historians say protects wealth when sovereigns lose control of the bond market

• SPONSORED: Wall Street's "Project Apex"<: 21 banks are fighting for the SpaceX IPO. Here is how Main Street gets in first.

In March of this year, Jerome Powell stood at Harvard University and said this:

"The level of the debt is not unsustainable, but the path is not sustainable."

That is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. At Harvard. On the record. Telling you the path will not end well.

Washington's response? Congress passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. The CBO scored it at $3.4 trillion added to the primary deficit over ten years. Five trillion if made permanent. Interest payments on the national debt: doubling from $900 billion today to $1.8 trillion per year by 2034. That is 4.2 percent of GDP going straight to bondholders. Every single year.

We are not paying down the debt. We are not even covering the full interest. We are borrowing new money to pay the interest on the old money. I learned what that looks like from studying bankruptcy filings. It does not end well for the borrower.

Moody's stripped America of its last AAA credit rating in 2025. S&P did it in 2011. Fitch in 2023. All three major agencies have now downgraded the United States. The bond market has a longer memory than a cable news ticker.

This week, a Bank of America survey showed 62 percent of global fund managers expect 30-year Treasury yields to hit 6 percent. Six percent. That means your mortgage, your car loan, your business loan: all of them cost more. Every single month.

And on May 15, Jerome Powell walked out and Kevin Warsh walked in. Trump installed his own Fed chairman to get lower interest rates. The problem: you cannot cut rates into rising inflation. Reuters called it, in print: "exceptionally bad timing."

"By any reasonable assessment, Kevin Warsh's ascendancy to the chairmanship of the U.S. Federal Reserve comes at an exceptionally bad time."

I have been studying monetary history since 1971. Since Nixon closed the gold window and unmoored the dollar from any anchor. I have watched this pattern before. First the stock market celebrates. Then the bond market warns. Then the currency breaks.

We are in the second act. There is one number you need to see that tells you exactly how this ends. But first, here is what I am doing about it.

That number is the dollar's purchasing power since 1971. The year Nixon cut the gold link.

In 1971 you could buy an ounce of gold for $35. Today it costs $4,530.

Gold did not go up. The dollar went down. That is not a conspiracy. That is arithmetic.

Silver hit an all-time high of $121 per ounce in January. It has since pulled back to around $75. Bitcoin hit $126,000 in October 2025 and sits at $77,559 today.

I have been buying gold since $300. Silver since $5. Bitcoin since the beginning. Not because I love them. Because I have watched what governments do to paper money when the debt gets out of control. They print. They always print.

The people celebrating the Dow at 50,000 are watching the scoreboard. I am watching the bond market, the dollar, and the debt clock.

One of us is going to be right. The bond market is already telling you which one.

Learn the history. Buy real assets. Stop trusting the people who created the problem to solve the problem.

To your freedom,
Robert Kiyosaki

P.S. Universal Basic Income Already Exists (It Pays 10% a Year)

It's not waiting on Congress. It's not funded by U.S. taxes. Instead, it’s a way to tap into the $300 billion we generate from oil and gas sales every year. The money comes from 14 privately owned partnerships. The payouts occur 42 times a year. There are zero requirements to enroll. No salary cap or application process. Once you’re in, you collect 10% a year PLUS any capital gains these partnerships generate. It is the closest thing to universal basic income that exists in America. One investor collects $4,800/month. Another, $25,000. Here is what I am watching right now.