The Fed Is Hiking Into a Recession.

China bought gold for the 20th straight month. America added only 57,000 jobs. The Fed still wants to raise rates. Something is about to break.

July 10, 2026

THE FED IS ABOUT TO HIKE RATES INTO A DYING ECONOMY.

The June jobs report came out July 3rd. 57,000 new jobs. Consensus was 110,000 to 115,000. The economy produced roughly half of what the experts said it would. Meanwhile, inflation is still running at 4.2%. The national debt just crossed $39.28 trillion. That is $115,000 per person. Growing at $8 billion per day.

Nine of eighteen Federal Reserve officials want to raise interest rates before year-end. The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, would not even submit his own forecast. He called the Fed's forecasting record "abysmal."

Inside today's issue:

Let me tell you what happened.

On June 17th, Kevin Warsh ran his first meeting as Fed Chair. Nine of eighteen officials penciled in a rate hike for 2026. The median dot plot moved from 3.4% to 3.8%. Core PCE inflation forecast jumped from 2.7% to 3.3%. Warsh declined to submit his own dot. He told reporters he couldn't offer guidance on what his own committee would do next.

Read that again.

The man running the most powerful central bank in history says he does not know what his own institution will do.

Fifteen days after that meeting, the jobs report dropped. 57,000 jobs in June. Consensus was 115,000. Unemployment at 4.2%. Not because more people are working. Because people are leaving the workforce entirely.

This is what stagflation looks like. High inflation. Slowing growth. A central bank with no road map.

My poor dad trusted the institutions. He worked for the government his whole life. He believed in the system. The system left him broke.

My rich dad taught me something different. He said: when governments cannot manage their own affairs, they reach into yours. They inflate the currency. They tax the savings. They borrow against your future.

LOOK AT WHAT CHINA IS DOING. While American analysts debate whether Warsh hikes in July or September, the People's Bank of China bought gold for the 20th consecutive month in June. 480,000 troy ounces. Even as the gold price fell 12% that month. Even as Western investors sold.

The PBoC now holds 75.44 million troy ounces. 2,347 tonnes. They are not buying sentiment. They are buying the math. The math that says the dollar cannot survive $39 trillion in debt.

There is something important behind this story. And before I show you exactly what I think happens next, our friend Porter Stansberry has been tracking a specific piece of this economic puzzle that most investors have completely missed. Take a look:

Now. About what China knows that Wall Street keeps ignoring.

They are not buying gold because they think it will bounce next Tuesday. They are buying gold because they do not trust the dollar over the next decade. This is de-dollarization. Not the conspiracy theory version. The real version. Month after month. Methodical. Quiet. Determined.

GOLD HIT $5,602 AN OUNCE IN JANUARY 2026. A new all-time record. Then it fell. Today it sits near $4,089. That is a 27% correction.

I have seen this before. Many times.

I bought my first gold in 1972. The price was $35 an ounce. People told me I was wasting my money. Same story. Different decade. Different numbers. Same outcome.

"Gold is seeing a nice bounce this morning; a lower-than-expected ADP print helped set the stage and Fed chair Warsh's comments on inflation coming down has pushed yields lower and jolted a sleepy gold market smartly higher."
-- Tai Wong, independent metals trader, CNBC, July 2, 2026

Tai Wong sees a bounce. I see something bigger.

The Fed cannot hike rates into 57,000 jobs without triggering a hard recession. They cannot cut rates with 4.2% inflation without blowing the dollar. They are trapped. And historically, when central banks get trapped, they do what governments always do.

They print.

The dollar has lost more than 40% of its purchasing power since 2000. Since I started paying attention in the 1970s, it has lost well over 90%. This does not stop. It accelerates when the debt load becomes impossible to service any other way.

I am not selling gold at $4,089. Neither is China. That is not a coincidence.

The escape hatch is real assets. Gold. Silver. Real estate that produces cash flow. Businesses that own things. The B and I quadrant is not a slogan. It is a survival strategy.

To your freedom,

Robert Kiyosaki

Author, Rich Dad Poor Dad

P.S. For years, our friend Larry Benedict ran his own hedge fund, where he quietly generated over a quarter of a billion dollars in profit. Now he's pulling back the curtain on his top oil strategy. It has already helped his readers have a chance at payouts like $4,354, $4,783, and even $6,268. Watch the free presentation here.