Dear Reader,
Five days. Five lies. That was this week. They told you 162,000 jobs were added in August. They told you inflation is cooling to 3.3%. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve’s own data shows money supply at $23.22 trillion -- a new all-time high. Meanwhile Canada fired $27.6 billion in tariffs at American goods at midnight Tuesday. Meanwhile the Treasury quietly doubled its bond buyback program because buyers stopped showing up. The mainstream did not connect any of this. I am going to connect it right now.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
Monday, September 7 -- Labor Day. Washington was celebrating 162,000 new jobs added in August. I was not. CNN’s own analysts said 94% of all net new jobs over the past three years came from just three sectors: hospitals, restaurants, and government. Manufacturing lost jobs. Finance shed 107,000 positions compared to last year. Technology cut headcount. That is not a recovery. That is an economy on an IV drip that learned how to smile for the camera.
Tuesday, September 8 -- Canada struck at midnight. Retaliatory tariffs on 700 American products -- steel, dairy, appliances, electronics -- totaling $27.6 billion went live at 12:01 a.m. Your refrigerator costs more. The lumber to build your house costs more. At the same moment, the 30-year Treasury yield sat at 5.27%, highest since 2007. The bond market and the trade war flashed the same warning simultaneously: the world is losing faith in American paper.
Wednesday, September 9 -- Three Fed members voted to hike. The July FOMC meeting vote was 9 to 3. Nine held rates steady. Three wanted to raise them immediately. Nobody in the financial press covered those three dissents. But the dot plot shows nine out of twelve Fed members projected at least one rate hike before year end. The market priced in 67 basis points of cuts all year. The people actually setting rates planned hikes. That gap is not a miscommunication. That is the Fed managing what you think while doing what it must.
Thursday, September 10 -- The government started buying its own debt. The U.S. Treasury doubled its bond buyback program overnight -- from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation -- effective September 9. They called it “liquidity support.” Here is what that phrase actually means. Buyers stopped showing up. So the government became the buyer of last resort for its own paper. A company that buys its own stock to hold the price up is usually hiding something. The U.S. Treasury just did the same thing -- with a rate hike probability sitting at 58% for September 15.
Friday, September 11 -- M2 hit $23.22 trillion. CPI said 3.3%. The August CPI number came in at 3.3%. The anchors smiled. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve’s own FRED database shows M2 money supply at a new all-time high -- up $862 billion since January alone, now $1.43 trillion above the March 2022 peak that gave us 9% grocery inflation. They are printing money at record levels. Then they measure the result with a thermometer they calibrated themselves. One of those numbers is lying to you. You know which one.
WHAT THEY’RE NOT TELLING YOU
1. The U.S. Treasury quietly doubled its bond buyback program from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, effective September 9. When the government has to buy its own debt to support the price, the market has already delivered its verdict. The official language was “liquidity support.” The actual translation: buyers went on strike. (U.S. Treasury statement, September 9, 2026)
2. M2 money supply just reached $23.22 trillion -- the 27th consecutive monthly increase and $1.43 trillion above the March 2022 level that produced 9% grocery inflation. The government is reporting 3.3% CPI and calling it progress. The money supply chart tells a different story. They cannot both be right. (Federal Reserve FRED, August 25, 2026)
3. At the July Federal Reserve meeting, three members voted to raise rates immediately, and nine of twelve projected at least one hike before year end. The market spent the first half of 2026 pricing in rate cuts. The Fed’s own dot plot says the opposite. Someone is going to be very wrong very soon. (Forbes Advisor / Charles Schwab, July 2026)
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ROBERT’S TAKE
This week was not five separate stories. It was one story. The government built an economy on borrowed money, printed enough to keep it running, and now cannot afford the interest rates a free market would charge it. So it buys its own bonds. It counts government workers and restaurant jobs as growth. It calibrates the inflation thermometer. And it hopes you do not look at the money supply chart.
I have studied this pattern for 50 years. Japan ran it for 30 years -- yield curve control, government bond buying, a currency that lost half its purchasing power since 2021. Rome ran it for 300 years -- debasing the silver denarius until it was mostly tin. They always give it an official name. “Monetary policy.” “Liquidity support.” “Quantitative easing.” The mechanism is always the same. Print. Suppress. Deny. Inflate.
The September 15-16 Federal Reserve meeting is not a routine check-in. It is a trap with no good exits. Hike rates into an economy growing at 1.5% with $39.8 trillion in debt, and you accelerate the interest payment crisis. Hold rates while inflation runs at 4.1% and money supply sits at all-time highs, and you accelerate the purchasing power destruction. The rate hike probability sits at 58%. There is no soft landing on this runway.
The government cannot print gold. It cannot print silver. It cannot tariff real estate out of existence or inflate productive land into worthlessness. Those are the only assets that have survived every empire’s collapse -- because they are real, and paper is not. Watch the September 15 decision. But more importantly, watch the 10-year yield the minute that decision drops. That is where the market will tell you the truth the press will not print.
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WHAT’S COMING
The biggest catalyst next week is the September 15-16 Federal Reserve meeting -- where a potential rate hike into stagflation will either confirm everything the bond market has been pricing in all month, or blindside a market that still thinks cuts are coming.
Stay alert. Stay free.
-- Robert Kiyosaki
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