Dear Reader,
In five days, Canada pulls the trigger.
Seven hundred American products. Dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs. Sectors ranging from dairy and steel to electronics and copper wire. Effective September 8, 2026. While the financial press was busy debating what Kevin Warsh will do in September, Ottawa quietly declared a trade war.
This is not a negotiating tactic. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from the table. The deal is off. Now comes the bill.
Inside today's issue:
- The real inflation nobody is counting. What $27.6 billion in retaliatory tariffs actually does to your grocery bill and hardware store.
- The bond market is screaming. The 30-year Treasury just hit 5.21%, a 19-year high. Warsh calls it "work to do." I call it a debt bomb with a lit fuse.
- The escape from the trade-war crossfire. Why producers of real things win when governments fight over paper promises.
- Larry Benedict just released a new presentation on a strategy called "Oil Skimming." Worth a look.
THE TRADE WAR COMES HOME
Here is what the mainstream is not saying.
On August 22, the United States slapped a 50% tariff on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods. Canada ran the numbers, matched them dollar-for-dollar, and filed the paperwork. Seven hundred product categories. Fifteen to fifty percent. Effective September 8.
This is not abstract. This is dairy prices. Appliance costs. The steel that goes into every new home. The copper wire that runs through every renovation job. Economists call this "supply-side price pressure." I call it what it is: a hidden tax on every American who buys anything made with Canadian inputs.
The CBO will eventually count it. The Fed will say it is "transitory." By then the damage is already in your wallet.
Meanwhile, the bond market is telling a separate story. The 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.21% this week. That is the highest level since 2007. Markets are now pricing a 57% chance of a September rate hike. Warsh went to Jackson Hole and said the Fed "has work to do." Translation: more rate hikes coming on top of a tariff shock. That is stagflation territory. Oil and commodities rising. Real wages falling. The government borrowing $1.8 trillion a year and asking you to believe the numbers are fine.
Here is the history lesson they will not teach you in school.
Every major tariff war in the 20th century ended the same way. Smoot-Hawley in 1930 did not save American jobs. It destroyed them. It froze trade. It triggered retaliation. It made the Great Depression worse. We are watching the same movie. Different costumes. Same ending.
But here is what I want you to understand before we get to the part that actually matters.
When governments fight over who gets to export what, the only things that hold their value are things that neither government can print, tax, or retract. Real assets. Physical commodities. The businesses that pull things out of the ground and sell them to whoever needs them.
I have been saying this for 30 years. Now we have a live example. Five days from now, the price of a lot of things gets more expensive. Who profits from that? Not the bond holder. Not the dollar holder.
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Now. About those tariffs.
THE PRODUCERS WIN
Here is the play that cycles like this one always produce.
When governments punish trade, the producers of real things get scarcer and more valuable. Canadian steel tariffed out? American steel demand rises. Copper wire hit with a 25% counter-tariff? Domestic copper producers see margin expansion. Dairy countered dollar-for-dollar? Agricultural commodity prices spike on both sides of the border.
The smart money does not sit in dollars during a trade war. It does not sit in 30-year Treasuries yielding 5.21% when real inflation is running hotter. It moves into the things governments cannot replicate or sanction out of existence.
Gold. Silver. Real estate. Energy producers. Agricultural commodity plays.
I have been accumulating physical silver since 1965. I am not selling. Not when two major governments are in a tariff standoff and the bond market is flashing warnings. Not when the Fed is about to raise rates into a supply shock.
RICH DAD PRINCIPLE: In a war between two governments, the only guaranteed winner is whoever owns what they are fighting over.
Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered. Take what the cycle is handing you.
To your freedom,
Robert Kiyosaki
Author, Rich Dad Poor Dad
P.S. The book Hedge Fund Market Wizards profiles some of the greatest traders alive. And our friend Larry Benedict has his own chapter. Now this former hedge fund manager is turning to oil, and he says the market conditions forming right now are some of the best he's seen in 40 years. Watch the free presentation here.
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